{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "HGWwmo-xKn2S"
   },
   "source": [
    "# Covid-19致死率(CFR)与病例年龄分布因果分析\n",
    "数据集包括来自12个国家的756004例病例数据\\\n",
    "包括五个字段：\n",
    "\n",
    "+ Date of reporting: 统计时间\n",
    "+ Comfirmed fatalities: 死亡病例数\n",
    "+ Comfirmed cases: 感染病例数\n",
    "+ Age group: 年龄组编号\n",
    "+ Country: 报告来自国家"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.796925Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:15.961923Z"
    },
    "colab": {
     "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
     "height": 70
    },
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "L1MgHb7UKhTH",
    "outputId": "7d11440c-b564-459e-8b6a-f5a1d7552228"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "sns.set()\n",
    "from matplotlib import rc\n",
    "from scipy import stats\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'svg'"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "S4ipX2UOOHDz"
   },
   "source": [
    "# 数据处理与数据读取"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "6JlI5c7fNAzj"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Covid19Dataset `class`\n",
    "为了便于数据处理，创建`Covid19Dataset`类来保存一个具体数据\\\n",
    "其中包括的数据为：来自某一个国家某一个时间点报告的确证病例数据和死亡病例数据，两组数据都通过年龄组分组\\\n",
    "年龄组划分为0-9岁，10-19岁，20-29岁，30-39岁，40-49岁，50-59岁，60-69岁，70-79岁，80岁以上共9组\\\n",
    "类在创建时会计算关键数据：\n",
    "+ 整体致死率 Total CFR\n",
    "+ 各年龄段感染率 Case Rate by Age\n",
    "+ 各年龄段致死率 Case Fatality Rate(CFR) "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.806367Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.796925Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "OzbuliF-cFyl"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "class Covid19Dataset():\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    A class for datasets with case and fatality numbers stratified by age \n",
    "    group for different countries.\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    def __init__(self,\n",
    "                country,\n",
    "                date,\n",
    "                confirmed_cases,\n",
    "                fatalities,\n",
    "                source,\n",
    "                comments=None,\n",
    "                age_ranges=['0-9', '10-19', '20-29', '30-39', '40-49', '50-59', '60-69', '70-79','80+']\n",
    "                ):\n",
    "        self.country = country\n",
    "        self.date = date\n",
    "        self.confirmed_cases = np.array(confirmed_cases)\n",
    "        self.fatalities = np.array(fatalities)\n",
    "        self.source = source\n",
    "        self.comments = comments\n",
    "        self.age_ranges = age_ranges\n",
    "        \n",
    "        # compute quantities of interest\n",
    "        self.cfr = self.fatalities/ self.confirmed_cases\n",
    "        self.total_cases = sum(self.confirmed_cases)\n",
    "        self.total_fatalities = sum(self.fatalities)\n",
    "        self.case_rates_by_age = self.confirmed_cases/self.total_cases\n",
    "        self.total_cfr = sum(self.case_rates_by_age * self.cfr)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "w3I8SiOO6hRL"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Argentina"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "P9blJrxg6hHk"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 May"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.814297Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.809390Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "oML20xua6l2U"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Argentina_May28 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Argentina',\n",
    "    date = '28 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1002, 1080, 2813, 3142, 2508, 1812, 1005, 651, 662],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 1, 9, 24, 54, 101, 123, 194],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'author': 'Ministry of Health of Argentina',\n",
    "        'date': '28 May 2020',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.argentina.gob.ar/salud/coronavirus-COVID-19/sala-situacion'  # accessed 29 May\n",
    "        }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "5NFfSAc3OKkr"
   },
   "source": [
    "## China"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "XZbTtGw7Oi_-"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 17 February 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.821519Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.815986Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "ujAE_GRU6nDc"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "China_Feb17 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'China',\n",
    "    date = '17 February', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [416, 549, 3619, 7600, 8571, 10008, 8583, 3918, 1408],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 7, 18, 38, 130, 309, 312, 208],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'scientific publication',\n",
    "        'title': 'Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus\\\n",
    "            disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: summary of a report of\\\n",
    "            72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention',\n",
    "        'author': 'Wu, Zunyou and McGoogan, Jennifer M',\n",
    "        'journal': 'Jama',\n",
    "        'date': '24 February 2020',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130'\n",
    "        }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "BvIXLp6_djDC"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Colombia"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "WTunHUBoidW1"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 May"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.830191Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.824786Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "cGML2Z-4igen"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Colombia_May28 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Colombia',\n",
    "    date = '28 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1105, 1950, 5614, 5615, 4033, 3286, 1961, 1117, 685],\n",
    "    fatalities = [5, 1, 13, 24, 61, 121, 192, 214, 191],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report of the government',\n",
    "        'date': '28 May 2020, 7:30 pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Instituto Nacional de Salud',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.ins.gov.co/Noticias/Paginas/Coronavirus.aspx'\n",
    "        }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "aWpC0Ctky_lF"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Diamond Princess (cruise ship)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "S0ll6qWhy_fd"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 26 March"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.837765Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.832196Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "sK_zkYXkzPvc"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "DiamondPrincess_Mar26 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Diam. Princ.',\n",
    "    date = '26 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1, 5, 28, 34, 27, 59, 177, 234, 54],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 4],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'scientific publication',\n",
    "        'title': 'Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020',\n",
    "        'journal': 'Eurosurveillance',\n",
    "        'date': '26 March 2020',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32234121/'\n",
    "        }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "8k_n7CGQOPS6"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Italy"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "gnDUjFxtOpo5"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 9 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.845783Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.839062Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "HyqX9KQZIbax"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Mar9 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '9 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [43, 85, 296, 470, 891, 1453, 1471, 1785, 1532],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 37, 114, 202],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '9 March 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-\\sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_09-marzo-2020.pdf'\n",
    "        }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "MA5rH84eOtmx"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 12 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.853243Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.846782Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "YDRHu5bs1EL9"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Mar12 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '12 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [63,\t118,\t511,\t819,\t1523,\t2480,\t2421,\t2849,\t2533],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0,\t0,\t0,\t1,\t1,\t14,\t65,\t274, 430],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '12 March 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf'\n",
    "        },\n",
    "    comments = '565 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "       from the data (4.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "STld2zYxOv-O"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 19 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.862604Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.857713Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "ltDEWN9j1Jql"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Mar19 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '19 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [205,\t270,\t1374,\t2525,\t4396,\t6834,\t6337,\t7121,\t6467],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0,\t0,\t0,\t9,\t25,\t83,\t312,\t1090,\t1528],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '19 March 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.iss.it/documents/20126/0/Bollettino+sorveglianza+integrata+COVID-19_19+marzo+2020.pdf/'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '202 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.6% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "ijSzjbdtOxir"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 23 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.870193Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.864601Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "kvldJ5y11_hL"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Mar23 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '23 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [318, 386, 2192, 3995, 7267, 11280, 10423, 11320, 10514],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0,\t0,\t0,\t12, 41, 168, 541, 1768, 2488],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '23 March 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-marzo%202020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '294 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.5% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "8HfxIE1vs1Hr"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 26 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.879073Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.872420Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "N-lIMz9es3xZ"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Mar26 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '26 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [428, 512, 2778, 5033, 9295, 14508,13243, 14198, 13539],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0,\t0,\t0,\t17, 67, 243, 761, 2403, 3310],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '26 March 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_26-marzo%202020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '246 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.3% of all cases)'\n",
    ")\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "MI24dkcnS4-c"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 2 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.886288Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.881070Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "AykYr2cSS7A7"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Apr2 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '2 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [693, 931, 4530, 7466, 13701, 20975, 18089, 19238, 20608],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 6, 29, 110, 479, 1448, 4196, 6280],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '2 April 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_2-aprile-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '168 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.2% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "AolCbFYQQ6bA"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 9 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.894611Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.889027Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "_rpsvgEbQ_WF"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Apr9 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '9 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [938, 1432, 6360, 9956, 17745, 26391, 21734, 22934, 28478],\n",
    "    fatalities = [1, 0, 7, 36, 153, 638, 1957, 5366, 8495],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '9 April 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_9-aprile-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '142 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "VWEoa32GrbCN"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 16 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.901759Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.896608Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "nDMIAj16rY_V"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Apr16 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '16 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1123, 1804, 7737, 11686, 20519, 29858, 24040, 25717, 36519],\n",
    "    fatalities = [1, 0, 7, 40, 178, 756, 2284, 6203, 10525],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '16 April 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_16-aprile-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '104 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "TukAplvDtDcA"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 23 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.910831Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.903758Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "ES9tgxiPr7Ki"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Apr23 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '23 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1304, 2146, 8963, 13137, 22767, 32524, 25707, 27615, 42862],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 0, 7, 48, 203, 861, 2576, 6882, 12609],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '23 April 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-aprile-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '118 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "UmSHNbjQtxx7"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.918679Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.911846Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "hfCgY2Klr7bg"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_Apr28 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '28 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1478, 2511, 10377, 14907, 25644, 35986, 27880, 30158, 50448],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 0, 8, 49, 224, 918, 2727, 7291, 13996],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '28 April 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_28-aprile-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '81 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (<0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "PwcVawrywjOh"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 7 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.927116Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.920200Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "RsdWz03Br7pQ"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_May7 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '7 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1642, 2908, 11457, 16189, 27553, 38399, 29252, 31627, 55020],\n",
    "    fatalities = [3, 0, 9, 54, 246, 993, 2976, 7849, 15825],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': ' 7 May 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_7-maggio-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '56 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (<0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "fbLlspyZGz6t"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 14 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.934984Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.929122Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "L0a7FtbiGz6v"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_May14 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '14 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1774, 3148, 12115, 16981, 28627, 39822, 30010, 32353, 57192],\n",
    "    fatalities = [3, 0, 12, 59, 258, 1063, 3127, 8221, 16948],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': ' 14 May 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_14-maggio-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '52 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (<0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "Mjwlusr6BQ_g"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 20 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.942263Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.936992Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "5ShlbYHGBRBa"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_May20 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '20 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1851, 3312, 12599, 17528, 29390, 40803, 30466, 32824, 58380],\n",
    "    fatalities = [4, 0, 14, 61, 268, 1101, 3219, 8447, 17903],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': ' 20 May 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_20-maggio-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '51 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (<0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "_IJsn5_QKTgX"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 26 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.949508Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.944260Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "xWeeaWGPKTgZ"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Italy_May26 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Italy',\n",
    "    date = '26 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1919, 3442, 12933, 17934, 29942, 41435, 30880, 33141, 59134],\n",
    "    fatalities = [4, 0, 12, 62, 273, 1109, 3259, 8562, 18395],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': ' 26 May 2020, 4pm',\n",
    "        'author': 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità  \\\n",
    "            (ISS, Italian National Institute of Health)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_26-maggio-2020.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    "    comments = '51 cases with unknown age (\"non nota\") were discarded \\\n",
    "        from the data (<0.1% of all cases)'\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "GapKcxhJvjWg"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Netherlands\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "pzqQTt9avmKl"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.957146Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.951507Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "L0YsIhyqvqNy"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Netherlands_28May = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Netherlands',\n",
    "    date = '28 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [128, 587, 4336, 4093, 5269, 8437, 5949, 6229, 10919],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 3, 10, 28, 142, 484, 1596, 3639],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': ' 28 May 2020',\n",
    "        'author': 'Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/epidemiologische-situatie-covid-19-in-nederland-28-mei-2020'\n",
    "    }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "sqDMFbAfnFHy"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Portugal"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "7AC5wXufnFVK"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.964385Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.959162Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "W7HCSDepnEBw"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Portugal_28May = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Portugal',\n",
    "    date = '28 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [626, 1052, 4114, 4736, 5315, 5253, 3484, 2537, 4479],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 1, 1, 15, 42, 122, 269, 919],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '28 May 2020 (data from 27 May 24:00)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Servico Nacional de Saude Republica Portuguesa',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://covid19.min-saude.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/87_DGS_boletim_20200528.pdf'\n",
    "    }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "Tnnjc1-JuNpK"
   },
   "source": [
    "## South Africa"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "xYTizOaZuN3Q"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.971207Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.965387Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "PwwCYUOFuOJj"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "SouthAfrica_28May = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'South Africa',\n",
    "    date = '28 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [755, 1147, 5319, 7720, 5754, 3753, 1663, 754, 415],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 1, 4, 33, 61, 144, 153, 113, 66],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official report',\n",
    "        'date': '28 May 2020 (data from 27 May 24:00)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Health Department republic of South Africa',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/05/29/update-on-covid-19-28th-may-2020/' # accessed 29 May 2:00 am CEST\n",
    "    }\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "bi6HWUEtORS7"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Spain"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "nOS6Xf6avoNA"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 22 March 2020 "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.978882Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.973802Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "0ftI-pAkJN10"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Mar22 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '22 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [129,\t221, 1285, 2208, 2919, 3129, 2916, 3132, 3020],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 4, 3, 9, 20, 63, 164, 541],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '22 March 2020 (data from 21 March, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_52_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "Ig0cThiFWRKk"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 26 March 2020 "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.985785Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.978882Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "iYyyDYXeWRKn"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Mar26 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '26 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [175,\t302, 1932, 3454, 5045, 5749, 5397, 5377, 5385],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 4, 7, 19, 35, 114, 303, 843],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '26 March 2020 (data from 25 March, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_56_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "xPyFonH6vwfP"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 30 March 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.992958Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.985785Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "MwgXRHxCvzWQ"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Mar30 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '30 March', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [212, 368, 2883, 5351, 7965, 9390, 8744, 8625, 8088],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 6, 10, 36, 78, 232, 759, 1662],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '30 March 2020 (data from 29 March, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_60_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "lYaX8s-9ZHqV"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 2 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.003794Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:17.998946Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "XjLJD7oQZHqh"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Apr2 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '2 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [250, 434, 3590, 6853, 10551, 12722, 11657, 11368, 11752],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 1, 6, 18, 49, 131, 373, 1176, 2607],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '2 April 2020 (data from 1 April, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_63_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "iU_s7gNpaN5Y"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 9 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.012079Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.006623Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "FkcPJk8qaN5a"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Apr9 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '9 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [285, 588, 5381, 10341, 16088, 19836, 17713, 16957, 19258],\n",
    "    fatalities = [1, 1, 11, 24, 61, 197, 597, 1773, 4064],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '9 April 2020 (data from 8 April, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_70_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "nihm_QxQbELz"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 16 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.019716Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.014077Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "JA1fkU5VbEL6"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Apr16 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '16 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [423, 734, 6763, 12466, 19536, 24471, 21249, 20287, 27153],\n",
    "    fatalities = [1, 2, 19, 37, 116, 312, 958, 2868, 6480],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '16 April 2020 (data from 15 April, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_77_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "1fdREAhwcE8X"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 23 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.027180Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.022147Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "m0JjqPHlcE8Z"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Apr23 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '23 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [502, 869, 7962, 14304, 22430, 27795, 23595, 22470, 32760],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 3, 25, 50, 138, 400, 1149, 3374, 7937],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '23 April 2020 (data from 22 April, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_84_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "MLh5B-useqDg"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 28 April 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.034392Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.029179Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "ISzDt377eqDh"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_Apr28 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '28 April', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [660, 1206, 11138, 18924, 29629, 36423, 30361, 29550, 46975],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 4, 22, 55, 172, 497, 1387, 4012, 9702],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '28 April 2020 (data from 27 April, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_89_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "NDaCRDpvi-F3"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 7 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.041753Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.036388Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "dWN2298Mi-GL"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_May7 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '7 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [765, 1398, 12321, 20759, 32239, 39418, 32226, 30861, 50457],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 5, 21, 57, 185, 569, 1541, 4320, 10760],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '7 May 2020 (data from 6 May, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_98_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "r6K248Bh_AWk"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 14 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.048748Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.043763Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "m71Stn0b_AWr"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_May14 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '14 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [871, 1619, 13439, 22643, 35175, 42874, 34380, 32395, 55699],\n",
    "    fatalities = [2, 5, 23, 62, 201, 610, 1693, 4628, 11931],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '14 May 2020 (data from 13 May, 9pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_105_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "aUqsmr7tCIV8"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 29 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.056612Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.049749Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "tx3nSHfzCIV_"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Spain_May29 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Spain',\n",
    "    date = '29 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [1123, 2068, 15272, 24902, 37970, 45750, 36355, 34294, 61026],\n",
    "    fatalities = [3, 5, 24, 65, 218, 663, 1825, 4896, 12886],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '29 May 2020 (data from 28 May, reviewed on 29 May, 12pm)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias \\\n",
    "             (CCAES), Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social \\\n",
    "              (MISAN, Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare)',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_120_COVID-19.pdf'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "yoQgxxaXiOy3"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Sweden"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "aSxQeBCfjFEE"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 18 May"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.063359Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.057622Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "cUzlU7CviTZH"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Sweden_May18 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Sweden',\n",
    "    date = '18 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [168, 401, 3104, 4051, 4962, 6190, 4186, 3888, 7482],\n",
    "    fatalities = [1, 0, 8, 12, 39, 129, 294, 909, 2733],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '? May 2020',\n",
    "        'author': 'Folkhalsomyndigheten (Public Health Agency of Sweden))',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#cite_note-306' # accessed 29 May, 1am CEST\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "gEExPbNFTHtU"
   },
   "source": [
    "## Switzerland"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "0z1VxfbITQmq"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 18 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.070280Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.065358Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "YV7oIALWTWc7"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Switzerland_May18 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Switzerland',\n",
    "    date = '18 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [157, 868, 3812, 4119, 4781, 6202, 3654, 2885, 4065],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 0, 5, 4, 34, 117, 327, 1116],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '18 May 2020 (8am)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Federal Office of Public Health Switzerland',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html#-1199962081'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "e-BtL5onWVEn"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 26 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.076836Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.072119Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "c6DoLhjbWIZm"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "Switzerland_May26 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'Switzerland',\n",
    "    date = '26 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [162, 877, 3844, 4136, 4809, 6232, 3671, 2896, 4080],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 0, 5, 4, 37, 121, 335, 1146],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '26 May 2020 (8am)',\n",
    "        'author': 'Federal Office of Public Health Switzerland',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html#-1199962081'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "4QyUbwDCnz5C"
   },
   "source": [
    "## South Korea"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "fKH_g_g9n4Vx"
   },
   "source": [
    "### 25 May 2020"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.083656Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.077837Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "LGa7_Y1Tn86u"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "SouthKorea_May25 = Covid19Dataset(\n",
    "    country = 'South Korea',\n",
    "    date = '25 May', \n",
    "    confirmed_cases = [149, 636, 3117, 1235, 1481, 1987, 1375, 719, 491],\n",
    "    fatalities = [0, 0, 0, 2, 3, 15, 39, 78, 129],\n",
    "    source = {\n",
    "        'type': 'official ministry report',\n",
    "        'date': '24 May 2020, 00:00 KST',\n",
    "        'author': 'Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention',\n",
    "        'url': 'https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a20501000000&bid=0015&list_no=367317&act=view'\n",
    "    },\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.090348Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.085652Z"
    },
    "colab": {},
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "zadXbimKge2U"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "datasets = [\n",
    "            Argentina_May28,\n",
    "            China_Feb17,\n",
    "            Colombia_May28,\n",
    "            DiamondPrincess_Mar26,\n",
    "            Italy_Mar9, Italy_Mar12, Italy_Mar19, Italy_Mar23, Italy_Mar26, \n",
    "            Italy_Apr2, Italy_Apr9, Italy_Apr16, Italy_Apr23, Italy_Apr28,\n",
    "            Italy_May7, Italy_May14, Italy_May20, Italy_May26,\n",
    "            Netherlands_28May,\n",
    "            Portugal_28May,\n",
    "            SouthAfrica_28May,\n",
    "            Spain_Mar22, Spain_Mar26, Spain_Mar30, Spain_Apr2, Spain_Apr9,\n",
    "            Spain_Apr16, Spain_Apr23, Spain_Apr28, Spain_May7, Spain_May14, Spain_May29,\n",
    "            Sweden_May18,\n",
    "            Switzerland_May18, Switzerland_May26,\n",
    "            SouthKorea_May25\n",
    "            ]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "GGXmhC0LvZXQ"
   },
   "source": [
    "# 中国和意大利CFR数据对比过程中的辛普森悖论"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "OeqMxGt224m4"
   },
   "source": [
    "对比中国(二月十七日)和意大利（三月九日）数据，各年龄段CFR(各个年龄段中致死率)和整体CFR(全体人口中致死率)\\\n",
    "发现如下悖论：\n",
    "+ 在各年龄段数据中，每个年龄段数据都显示，意大利CFR低于中国CFR数据\n",
    "+ 在整体CFR数据中，意大利CFR(4.4%)高于中国CFR(2.3%)\n",
    "\n",
    "整体数据和分布数据（年龄分布）两者表征的结果相反"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 40,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.101239Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.091350Z"
    },
    "colab": {
     "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
     "height": 0
    },
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "_lIQ1nr9bxgd",
    "outputId": "482f5d73-689f-47ac-aeb3-643e01e1837c"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def autolabel(rects, ax, decimal_points=1, fontsize=10):\n",
    "    \"\"\"Attach a text label above each bar in *rects*, displaying its height.\"\"\"\n",
    "    for rect in rects:\n",
    "        height = rect.get_height()\n",
    "        text_offset = (0, 3) if height >= 0 else (-2, -13)\n",
    "        ax.annotate(f\"{height:.{decimal_points}f}\",\n",
    "                    xy=(rect.get_x() + rect.get_width() / 2, height),\n",
    "                    xytext=text_offset,\n",
    "                    textcoords=\"offset points\",\n",
    "                    ha='center', va='bottom',\n",
    "                    fontsize=fontsize)\n",
    "\n",
    "def bar_chart_by_age(datasets, type, show_numbers=True, size=None):\n",
    "    n_data = len(datasets)\n",
    "    w = 1/n_data\n",
    "    if size is not None:\n",
    "        fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=size)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        fig, ax = plt.subplots()\n",
    "    \n",
    "    ax.set_xlabel('Age')\n",
    "    ax.set_ylabel('%')\n",
    "    i = 0\n",
    "    for data in datasets:\n",
    "        data_id  = data.country + ', ' + data.date\n",
    "        if type == 'cases_by_age':\n",
    "            labels = datasets[0].age_ranges    \n",
    "            x = 1.25 * np.arange(len(labels))  # the label locations\n",
    "            x_init = x - 0.5 + w/2\n",
    "            ax.set_xticks(x)\n",
    "            ax.set_xticklabels(labels)\n",
    "            ax.set_title('Proportion of confirmed cases by age group')\n",
    "            y = 100 * data.case_rates_by_age\n",
    "            bar = ax.bar(x_init + i/n_data, y, w, label=data_id)\n",
    "    \n",
    "        elif type == 'cfr':\n",
    "            labels = datasets[0].age_ranges + ['Total']  \n",
    "            x = 1.25 * np.arange(len(labels))  # the label locations\n",
    "            x_init = x - 0.5 + w/2\n",
    "            ax.set_xticks(x)\n",
    "            ax.set_xticklabels(labels)\n",
    "            ax.set_ylabel('%')\n",
    "            ax.set_title('Case fatality rates (CFRs) by age group')\n",
    "            y = np.append(100*data.cfr, 100*data.total_cfr)\n",
    "            bar = ax.bar(x_init + i/n_data, y, w, label=data_id)\n",
    "        \n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            raise NotImplementedError\n",
    "            print(\"Plot type not supported. Please choose between 'cases_by_age' and 'cfr'.\")\n",
    "        \n",
    "        i += 1\n",
    "        if show_numbers:\n",
    "            autolabel(bar, ax)\n",
    "\n",
    "    ax.legend()\n",
    "    fig.tight_layout()\n",
    "    plt.show()\n",
    "    return fig"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## **对比中国和意大利各个年龄段的CFR数据**"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 41,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.390594Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.102240Z"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/svg+xml": [
       "<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"utf-8\" standalone=\"no\"?>\n",
       "<!DOCTYPE svg PUBLIC \"-//W3C//DTD SVG 1.1//EN\"\n",
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   ],
   "source": [
    "data_Simpson = [China_Feb17, Italy_Mar9]\n",
    "fig = bar_chart_by_age(data_Simpson, 'cfr', show_numbers=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "各个年龄段数据都显示意大利CFR（橙色）低于中国CFR（蓝色）"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "oVKj_2qVgrrp"
   },
   "source": [
    "## **感染病例的年龄段分布数据**"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 42,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.634380Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.392592Z"
    },
    "colab": {
     "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
     "height": 0
    },
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "qmfq5pfJx-rp",
    "outputId": "0e0d7db9-691a-468f-9a48-5031d918315d"
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     "metadata": {},
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   ],
   "source": [
    "fig = bar_chart_by_age(data_Simpson, 'cases_by_age', show_numbers=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "63MHoF5zeAKM"
   },
   "source": [
    "中国和意大利之间感染病例的年龄段分布存在差异，意大利感染病例的年龄普遍偏高"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "1xeP0RQBOP1o"
   },
   "source": [
    "# 因果分析工具建模"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "9T7SWQNq8Bio"
   },
   "source": [
    "## 因果关系建模"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "dPoenEQcJpBR"
   },
   "source": [
    "考虑以下三个变量：\n",
    "\n",
    "*   国家 $C\\in \\{China, Italy, ...\\}$,\n",
    "*   年龄分布 $A\\in\\{\\text{0-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+}\\}$,\n",
    "*   病例是否死亡 $M\\in\\{0,1\\}$, $M=1$ 代表病例最终死亡\n",
    "\n",
    "假设这三个变量之间存在如下因果关系：\n",
    "\n",
    "*  $C\\rightarrow A$ \n",
    "*  $C\\rightarrow M$\n",
    "*  $A\\rightarrow M$\n",
    "\n",
    "在因果关系当中, 年龄分布 $A$ 是国家 $C$ 和病例是否死亡 $M$ 两者之间的因果中介.\\\n",
    "因此$C\\rightarrow M$为CFR的直接因果效应，而$C\\rightarrow A \\rightarrow M$为CFR的间接因果效应\\\n",
    "需要区别的是直接因果效应和整体因果效应的区别\\\n",
    "直接因果效应为“国家”这一变量下让CFR发生改变的直接原因，比如说“国情”这一原因\\\n",
    "间接因果效应为“国家”这一变量通过影响“年龄分布”这一变量导致CFR发生改变的间接原因\\\n",
    "而总体因果效应为“国家”这一变量对CFR改变的所有原因综合。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "HCFi4CSCzVHi"
   },
   "source": [
    "## 总体因果效应(TCE)，直接因果效应(NDE)，间接因果效应(NIE)理论\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "3B8u3WhuJffk"
   },
   "source": [
    "根据现有因果分析研究，给出如下定义三个："
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "btbYEvouig28"
   },
   "source": [
    "### Total causal effect (TCE)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "hr5STPPtJa0b"
   },
   "source": [
    "总体因果效应 total causal effect (TCE) 用于描述所有原因发生改变时结果会发生什么变化\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "**Definition.** The TCE of a treatment $T$ on an outcome $Y$ is defined as\n",
    "\n",
    "$$TCE_{0\\rightarrow 1} = \\mathbb{E}[Y|do(T=1)] - \\mathbb{E}[Y|do(T=0)].$$\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "在本案例中，TCE的大小相当于下列问题的回答：\n",
    "> *``如果“国家”这一变量从中国变成意大利，预计的CFR会发生什么样的变化？''*\n",
    "\n",
    "可以由以下公式表示\n",
    "\n",
    "$$TCE_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}} = \\mathbb{E}[M|do(C=\\text{Italy})] - \\mathbb{E}[M|do(C=\\text{China})].$$\n",
    "\n",
    "具体计算方法为\n",
    "\n",
    "$$TCE_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}} = \\sum_a P_{A|C}(a|\\text{Italy}) P_{M|A,C}(1|a,\\text{Italy}) - P_{A|C}(a|\\text{China}) P_{M|A,C}(1|a, \\text{China})$$\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.642431Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.636384Z"
    },
    "colab": {
     "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
     "height": 0
    },
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "C-lmDsNrmqMW",
    "outputId": "9a6623eb-bc35-4859-c2a6-113146940f24"
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Total CFR for China: 0.02290025071633238\n",
      "Total CFR for Italy: 0.04448043857463244\n",
      "TCE_China-->Italy =  2.158018785830006 %\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "def total_causal_effect(baseline, treatment):\n",
    "  return treatment.total_cfr - baseline.total_cfr\n",
    "\n",
    "print('Total CFR for China:', China_Feb17.total_cfr)\n",
    "print('Total CFR for Italy:', Italy_Mar9.total_cfr)\n",
    "print('TCE_China-->Italy = ',\n",
    "      100 * total_causal_effect(China_Feb17, Italy_Mar9),\n",
    "      '%')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "uYW-Dc8BnHVr"
   },
   "source": [
    "TCE为2.158%\\\n",
    "这意味着“国家”这一变量从中国变为意大利后，CFR数据会提高2.15%\\\n",
    "这意味着整体CFR看来，中国要优于意大利\\\n",
    "接下来分别对直接因果和间接因果进行分析"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "vN2e5kVT-6jv"
   },
   "source": [
    "### Natural direct effect (NDE)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "DqXgEd7hCvGR"
   },
   "source": [
    "直接因果效应natural direct effect (NDE)表征的是如果直接原因改变，而间接原因不变时，结果如果改变\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "**Definition.** The NDE of a treatment $T$ on an outcome $Y$ in presence of a mediator $X$ is given by \n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NDE}_{0\\rightarrow 1}=\\mathbb{E}\\left[Y_{X_0}|do(T=1)\\right]-\\mathbb{E}\\left[Y_{X_0}|do(T=0)\\right].$$\n",
    " \n",
    "where the subscript notation indicates the counterfactual outcome.\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "在本案例中，NDE回答如下问题\n",
    "> *“如果中国年龄分布不变，意大利的措施是否对疫情管理更有利？”*\n",
    "\n",
    "NDF由如下公式表示\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NDE}_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}}=\\mathbb{E}\\left[M_{A_\\text{China}}|do(C=\\text{Italy})\\right]-\\mathbb{E}\\left[M_{A_\\text{China}}|do(C=\\text{China})\\right]$$\n",
    "\n",
    "具体计算为\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NDE}_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}}= \\sum_{a} P_{A|C}(a|\\text{China})\\left[P_{M|A,C}(1|\\text{Italy}, a)-P_{M|A,C}(1|\\text{China}, a)\\right]$$ \n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.649739Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.644427Z"
    },
    "colab": {
     "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
     "height": 0
    },
    "colab_type": "code",
    "id": "RCFCdh4m8j68",
    "outputId": "14f160f6-863e-4c11-e346-778171234636"
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def natural_direct_effect(baseline, treatment):\n",
    "    return sum(baseline.case_rates_by_age * (treatment.cfr - baseline.cfr))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "Fg6tLm0hCnAk"
   },
   "source": [
    "### Natural indirect effect (NIE)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "1nI-4dcQM9cG"
   },
   "source": [
    "间接因果效应NIE表示的是如果直接原因不变，间接原因改变，结果如何改变\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "**Definition.** The NIE of a treatment $T$ on an outcome $Y$ in presence of a mediator $X$ is given by the expression:\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NIE}_{0\\rightarrow1}=\\mathbb{E}[Y_{X_1}|do(T=0)]-\\mathbb{E}[Y_{X_0}|do(T=0)].$$\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "在本案例中，相当于回答如下问题\n",
    "\n",
    "> *“如果中国的病例年龄分布情况和意大利一致，中国的整体CFR数据会如何变化？”*\n",
    "\n",
    "NIE由如下公式表示\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NIE}_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}}=\\mathbb{E}[M_{A=A_\\text{Italy}}|do(C=\\text{China})]-\\mathbb{E}[M_{A=A_\\text{China}}|do(C=\\text{China})].$$\n",
    "\n",
    "具体计算为\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\\text{NIE}_{\\text{China}\\rightarrow\\text{Italy}}= \\sum_{a} \\left[P_{A|C}(a|\\text{Italy})- P_{A|C}(a|\\text{China})\\right] P_{M|A,C}(1|\\text{China}, a)$$ \n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:18.655833Z",
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    "def natural_indirect_effect(baseline, treatment):\n",
    "    return sum((treatment.case_rates_by_age - baseline.case_rates_by_age) * baseline.cfr)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "_PW0ux5pPhqu"
   },
   "source": [
    "# Covid-19 CFR 因果分析案例"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "lad9yO73SN69"
   },
   "source": [
    "## 因果效应随时间变化情况\n",
    "\n",
    "从三月开始直到五月，11周时间，通过TCE，NDE，NIE三个指标对比中国和意大利的CFR数据"
   ]
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       "    <!-- 3.5 -->\n",
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   "source": [
    "def show_causal_effects_over_time(baseline, treatments, show_numbers=True, size=None):\n",
    "    n_treatments = len(treatments)\n",
    "    assert n_treatments > 0 and baseline is not None\n",
    "    tc = treatments[0].country\n",
    "    x = 1.25 * np.arange(n_treatments)\n",
    "    w = 1/3\n",
    "    x_init = x - 0.5 + w/2\n",
    "    if size is not None:\n",
    "        fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=size)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        fig, ax = plt.subplots()\n",
    "    \n",
    "    ax.set_xlabel('Date')\n",
    "    ax.set_ylabel('Change in total CFR (%)')\n",
    "    ax.set_xticks(x)\n",
    "    ax.set_title('Effects of changing country from '+baseline.country+' to '+tc)\n",
    "    i = 0\n",
    "    TCEs = []\n",
    "    NDEs = []\n",
    "    NIEs = []\n",
    "    labels = []\n",
    "    for treatment in treatments:\n",
    "        assert treatment.country == tc\n",
    "        TCEs.append(100 * total_causal_effect(baseline, treatment))\n",
    "        NDEs.append(100 * natural_direct_effect(baseline, treatment))\n",
    "        NIEs.append(100 * natural_indirect_effect(baseline, treatment))\n",
    "        labels.append(treatment.date)\n",
    "\n",
    "    bar1 = ax.bar(x_init, NDEs, w, label='Natural direct effect (NDE)')\n",
    "    bar2 = ax.bar(x_init + w, NIEs, w, label='Natural indirect effect (NIE)')\n",
    "    bar3 = ax.bar(x_init + 2 * w, TCEs, w, label=('Total causal effect (TCE)'))\n",
    "    if show_numbers:\n",
    "        autolabel(bar1, ax)\n",
    "        autolabel(bar2, ax)\n",
    "        autolabel(bar3, ax)\n",
    "\n",
    "    ax.set_xticklabels(labels)\n",
    "    plt.axhline(y=0,linewidth=1, color='k')\n",
    "    ax.legend()\n",
    "    fig.tight_layout()\n",
    "    plt.show()\n",
    "    return fig\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "temporal_data_Italy = [Italy_Mar9, Italy_Mar12, Italy_Mar19, Italy_Mar26, \n",
    "                       Italy_Apr2, Italy_Apr9, Italy_Apr16, Italy_Apr23, Italy_Apr28,\n",
    "                       Italy_May7, Italy_May14, Italy_May20, Italy_May26]              \n",
    "\n",
    "fig = show_causal_effects_over_time(China_Feb17, temporal_data_Italy, size=(13,6))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 结论\n",
    "\n",
    "**观察TCE指标（绿色）：**\n",
    "\n",
    "+ 所有时间点上，TCE指标都是为正值的，且随着时间不断升高\\\n",
    "+ 意味着，不考虑任何因果条件下，如果“国家”这一变量由中国变为意大利，CFR数据会不断升高\\\n",
    "+ 说明，整体CFR指标中国始终是优于意大利的\\\n",
    "\n",
    "**观察NDR指标（蓝色）：**\n",
    "+ 可以看到在最开始的两周为负数，从3月19日开始变为正数，且开始上升，直至四月份趋于平稳\\\n",
    "+ 意味着，“国家”这一变量对CFR的直接因果效应（例如“医疗资源”），如果由中国变为意大利，CFR数据的变化\\\n",
    "+ 说明，在最早期，意大利医疗资源要优于中国，但是从3月份开始，中国医疗资源要优于意大利\\\n",
    "+ 这一转折时间点与新闻中报导的意大利医疗体系崩溃时间点一致\\\n",
    "\n",
    "**观察NIE指标（橙色）：**\n",
    "+ 所有时间点上，NIE指标都是为正值的，且随着一致平稳\\\n",
    "+ 意味着，“感染病例年龄分布”这一变量如果从中国变为意大利，CFR数据会变高\\\n",
    "+ 说明，意大利感染病例年龄分布导致了CFR指标相比中国升高，也就出现了之前所说的辛普森悖论\\\n",
    "+ 意大利早期医疗资源充沛，早期各个年龄段CFR低于中国，但是意大利感染病例年龄大，死亡率高，也就导致了整体CFR数据高\\"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "pta0CFX1SYGr"
   },
   "source": [
    "# 多个国家之间对比"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "colab_type": "text",
    "id": "O0sbuHbXN__6"
   },
   "source": [
    "通过NIE和NDE两个指标在12个国家之间进行对比分析"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
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     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:19.210765Z"
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    "id": "Pls4xOZNPgPf",
    "outputId": "6ad6b489-824c-4f9a-8748-9c75bd524635"
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data from Argentina contains 14675 cases and 507 fatalities (CFR=3.5), reported on 28 May\n",
      "Data from China contains 44672 cases and 1023 fatalities (CFR=2.3), reported on 17 February\n",
      "Data from Colombia contains 25366 cases and 822 fatalities (CFR=3.2), reported on 28 May\n",
      "Data from Diam. Princ. contains 619 cases and 7 fatalities (CFR=1.1), reported on 26 March\n",
      "Data from Italy contains 230760 cases and 31676 fatalities (CFR=13.7), reported on 26 May\n",
      "Data from Netherlands contains 45947 cases and 5903 fatalities (CFR=12.8), reported on 28 May\n",
      "Data from Portugal contains 31596 cases and 1369 fatalities (CFR=4.3), reported on 28 May\n",
      "Data from South Africa contains 27280 cases and 577 fatalities (CFR=2.1), reported on 28 May\n",
      "Data from Spain contains 258760 cases and 20585 fatalities (CFR=8.0), reported on 29 May\n",
      "Data from Sweden contains 34432 cases and 4125 fatalities (CFR=12.0), reported on 18 May\n",
      "Data from Switzerland contains 30707 cases and 1648 fatalities (CFR=5.4), reported on 26 May\n",
      "Data from South Korea contains 11190 cases and 266 fatalities (CFR=2.4), reported on 25 May\n",
      "Analysed data from  12  countries, 756004  cases, 68508  fatalities.\n",
      "Total cumulative CFR across all countries is:  0.09061856815572404\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "def plot_effect_matrix(A, names, effect_type, add_title=True, size=8):\n",
    "    f, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(size+1, size))\n",
    "    ax = sns.heatmap(100*A, annot=True, fmt=\".1f\", linewidths=2, annot_kws={\"size\": 11, \"weight\":'bold'}, xticklabels=names, yticklabels=names)\n",
    "    ax.set_ylabel('Treatment', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    ax.set_xlabel('Control', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    if add_title:\n",
    "        ax.set_title(effect_type, fontsize=18, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    \n",
    "    return f\n",
    "\n",
    "def sort_effect_matrix_by_row_mean(A, country_names):\n",
    "    row_means = np.array([np.mean(A[i]) for i in range(A.shape[0])])\n",
    "    sorted_indices = row_means.argsort()\n",
    "    sorted_country_names = [country_names[i] for i in sorted_indices]\n",
    "    B = A[sorted_indices,:]\n",
    "    C = B[:, sorted_indices]\n",
    "    return C, sorted_country_names\n",
    "\n",
    "def plot_NIE_vs_NDE(NDEs, NIEs):\n",
    "    f, ax = plt.subplots()\n",
    "    ax = sns.regplot(x=100*NDEs, y=100*NIEs, ci=None)\n",
    "    ax.set_xlabel('NDE', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    ax.set_ylabel('NIE', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    R, p = stats.pearsonr(NDEs, NIEs)\n",
    "    title = (\"Pearson's r=%.3f (p=%.3f)\" %(R, p))\n",
    "    ax.set_title(title, fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')\n",
    "    return f\n",
    "\n",
    "latest_data_different_countries = [\n",
    "                                   Argentina_May28,\n",
    "                                   China_Feb17,  \n",
    "                                   Colombia_May28,\n",
    "                                   DiamondPrincess_Mar26,\n",
    "                                   Italy_May26,\n",
    "                                   Netherlands_28May,\n",
    "                                   Portugal_28May,\n",
    "                                   SouthAfrica_28May,\n",
    "                                   Spain_May29,  \n",
    "                                   Sweden_May18,\n",
    "                                   Switzerland_May26,\n",
    "                                   SouthKorea_May25\n",
    "                                   ]\n",
    "\n",
    "n_countries = len(latest_data_different_countries)\n",
    "n_cases = 0\n",
    "n_fatalities = 0 \n",
    "country_names = []\n",
    "TCEs = np.zeros((n_countries, n_countries))\n",
    "NDEs = np.zeros((n_countries, n_countries))\n",
    "NIEs = np.zeros((n_countries, n_countries))\n",
    "for i in range(n_countries):\n",
    "    # treatment country\n",
    "    country1 = latest_data_different_countries[i]\n",
    "    n_cases += country1.total_cases\n",
    "    n_fatalities += country1.total_fatalities\n",
    "    country_names.append(country1.country)\n",
    "    print('Data from %s contains %d cases and %d fatalities (CFR=%.1f), reported on %s'\n",
    "    %(country1.country, country1.total_cases, country1.total_fatalities, 100*country1.total_cfr, country1.date))\n",
    "    for j in range(n_countries):\n",
    "        # control/baseline country\n",
    "        country2 = latest_data_different_countries[j]\n",
    "        TCEs[i, j] = total_causal_effect(country2, country1)\n",
    "        NDEs[i, j] = natural_direct_effect(country2, country1)\n",
    "        NIEs[i, j] = natural_indirect_effect(country2, country1)\n",
    "\n",
    "print('Analysed data from ',n_countries, ' countries,',n_cases, ' cases,',n_fatalities, ' fatalities.')\n",
    "print('Total cumulative CFR across all countries is: ',n_fatalities/n_cases)"
   ]
  },
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   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## TCE指标对比"
   ]
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   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {
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     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:20.037282Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:19.226011Z"
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       "      <!-- Colombia -->\n",
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       "      <!-- South Africa -->\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_16\">\n",
       "      <!-- China -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(56.395938 121.327734) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "      <!-- South Korea -->\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_18\">\n",
       "      <!-- Colombia -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(38.672188 195.247734) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_6\">\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_19\">\n",
       "      <!-- Argentina -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(38.05 232.143281) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_7\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_19\">\n",
       "      <path d=\"M 94.635156 266.324062 \n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_20\">\n",
       "      <!-- Portugal -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(44.167031 269.103281) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
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       "      <!-- Switzerland -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(28.278906 306.127734) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_9\">\n",
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       "      <path d=\"M 94.635156 340.244062 \n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_22\">\n",
       "      <!-- Spain -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(57.002656 343.154766) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_10\">\n",
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       "      <path d=\"M 94.635156 377.204062 \n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_23\">\n",
       "      <!-- Sweden -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(45.385625 380.047734) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_11\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_12\">\n",
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       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(64.962188 453.903281) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -2.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(302.778828 158.295469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -3.0 -->\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_71\">\n",
       "    <!-- -5.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 158.295469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- -9.6 -->\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -10.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(433.640313 158.295469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"144.53125\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(467.422813 158.295469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- 0.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(269.298828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -1.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(302.778828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_82\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_83\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -8.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -9.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- -10.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(467.120313 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- 2.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- 1.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -0.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(302.778828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- -1.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_95\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_106\">\n",
       "    <!-- -1.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_107\">\n",
       "    <!-- -3.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_108\">\n",
       "    <!-- -7.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_109\">\n",
       "    <!-- -8.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_110\">\n",
       "    <!-- -9.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_111\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_112\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_113\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_114\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_115\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_116\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_117\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_118\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_119\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_120\">\n",
       "    <!-- -6.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_121\">\n",
       "    <!-- -7.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_122\">\n",
       "    <!-- -8.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_123\">\n",
       "    <!-- 6.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_124\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_125\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_126\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_127\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_128\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_129\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_130\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_131\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(371.570156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_132\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_133\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_134\">\n",
       "    <!-- -5.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_135\">\n",
       "    <!-- 10.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(100.671641 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"111.230469\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"139.013672\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_136\">\n",
       "    <!-- 9.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_137\">\n",
       "    <!-- 9.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_138\">\n",
       "    <!-- 9.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_139\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- 8.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- 7.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_143\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(371.570156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_144\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(405.050156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_145\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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   "source": [
    "TCEs_ordered, TCE_country_names_ordered = sort_effect_matrix_by_row_mean(TCEs, country_names)\n",
    "f_TCE_ordered = plot_effect_matrix(TCEs_ordered, TCE_country_names_ordered, effect_type='TCE')"
   ]
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   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
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    "TCE指标为正数，代表坐标所在格的列国家整体情况优于行国家\\\n",
    "例如坐标为（2，1）的数据为1.0，列国家对应于South Africa,行国家对应于Diam.Princ.\\\n",
    "说明整体CFR指标观察下来，South Africa优于Diam.Princ."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## NDE指标对比"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 49,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:20.816269Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:20.039482Z"
    }
   },
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "      <!-- Sweden -->\n",
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       "      <!-- Italy -->\n",
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       "      <!-- China -->\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_16\">\n",
       "      <!-- Portugal -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(44.167031 121.263281) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "      <!-- South Korea -->\n",
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       "     <g id=\"text_18\">\n",
       "      <!-- Spain -->\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"ytick_8\">\n",
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       "      <!-- Argentina -->\n",
       "      <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(38.05 306.063281) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -0.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- -5.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- -5.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(100.974141 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"50.115234\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
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   ],
   "source": [
    "NDEs_ordered, NDE_country_names_ordered = sort_effect_matrix_by_row_mean(NDEs, country_names)\n",
    "f_NDE_ordered = plot_effect_matrix(NDEs_ordered, NDE_country_names_ordered, effect_type='NDE')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## NIE指标对比"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 50,
   "metadata": {
    "ExecuteTime": {
     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:21.603403Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:20.818267Z"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
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       "   <g id=\"text_80\">\n",
       "    <!-- -1.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(269.298828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_81\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(302.778828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_82\">\n",
       "    <!-- -6.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_83\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_84\">\n",
       "    <!-- -7.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_85\">\n",
       "    <!-- -7.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_86\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 195.255469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_87\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_88\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_89\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_90\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_91\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_92\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_93\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_94\">\n",
       "    <!-- -3.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_95\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_96\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_97\">\n",
       "    <!-- -5.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_98\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(472.010156 232.215469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_99\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_100\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_101\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_102\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_103\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_104\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_105\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_106\">\n",
       "    <!-- -3.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(336.258828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_107\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_108\">\n",
       "    <!-- -4.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_109\">\n",
       "    <!-- -5.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_110\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(470.178828 269.175469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
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       "    <!-- 5.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_112\">\n",
       "    <!-- 7.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_113\">\n",
       "    <!-- 7.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- 1.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
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       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
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       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
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       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_119\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(369.738828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
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       "    <!-- -1.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_121\">\n",
       "    <!-- -2.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_122\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(472.010156 306.135469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_123\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_124\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_125\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_126\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_127\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_128\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_129\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_130\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_131\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(371.570156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_132\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(403.218828 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_133\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_134\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(472.010156 343.095469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_135\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_136\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_137\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_138\">\n",
       "    <!-- 5.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_139\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_140\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.6 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_141\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_142\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.3 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_143\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(371.570156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_144\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(405.050156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_145\">\n",
       "    <!-- -0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(436.698828 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2d\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"33.300781\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"88.916016\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"116.699219\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_146\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(472.010156 380.055469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_147\">\n",
       "    <!-- 6.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_148\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_149\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.8 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_150\">\n",
       "    <!-- 6.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-36\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_151\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.4 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(237.650156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_152\">\n",
       "    <!-- 3.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(271.130156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-33\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_153\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.1 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(304.610156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_154\">\n",
       "    <!-- 2.2 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(338.090156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-32\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_155\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(371.570156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_156\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(405.050156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_157\">\n",
       "    <!-- 0.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(438.530156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_158\">\n",
       "    <!-- 1.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(472.010156 417.015469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-31\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_159\">\n",
       "    <!-- 8.0 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(103.730156 453.975469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-38\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-30\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_160\">\n",
       "    <!-- 9.7 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(137.210156 453.975469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-37\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_161\">\n",
       "    <!-- 9.5 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #262626\" transform=\"translate(170.690156 453.975469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-39\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-2e\" x=\"55.615234\"/>\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-35\" x=\"83.398438\"/>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "   <g id=\"text_162\">\n",
       "    <!-- 4.9 -->\n",
       "    <g style=\"fill: #ffffff\" transform=\"translate(204.170156 453.975469) scale(0.11 -0.11)\">\n",
       "     <use xlink:href=\"#Arial-BoldMT-34\"/>\n",
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   "source": [
    "NIEs_ordered, NIE_country_names_ordered = sort_effect_matrix_by_row_mean(NIEs, country_names)\n",
    "f_NIE_ordered = plot_effect_matrix(NIEs_ordered, NIE_country_names_ordered, effect_type='NIE')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 51,
   "metadata": {
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     "end_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:21.865357Z",
     "start_time": "2025-04-17T06:57:21.606008Z"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Spearman correlation between rank by median age and rank by average NIE: 0.9370629370629372 6.99316495321054e-06\n",
      "Spearman correlation between rank by NDE and rank by NIE: 0.034965034965034975 0.9140933424107598\n",
      "Differences in ranking by NDE and NIE: [-5  3 -7 11 -1  0  3 -6  4 -3  1  0]\n"
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    "# scatter plot of NIE vs NDE with Pearson correlation\n",
    "flattened_NDEs = NDEs.reshape(n_countries*n_countries)\n",
    "flattened_NIEs = NIEs.reshape(n_countries*n_countries)\n",
    "f_NIE_VS_NDE = plot_NIE_vs_NDE(flattened_NDEs, flattened_NIEs)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# order in which countries are listed: [ARG, CHI, COL, DP, IT, NETH, POR, SA, SPA, SWE, SWITZ, SK]\n",
    "population_age_median_ranks = np.array([9, 8, 10, 0, 1, 3, 5, 11, 2, 7, 4, 6])  # 0 means oldest population\n",
    "NIE_ranks = np.array([9, 7, 10, 0, 1, 2, 6, 11, 3, 4, 5, 8])  # 0 means highest average NIE when country is used as treatment\n",
    "NDE_ranks = np.array([4, 10, 3, 11, 0, 2, 9, 5, 7, 1, 6, 8])  # 0 means highest average NDE when country is used as treatment\n",
    "\n",
    "r_s, p_s = stats.spearmanr(population_age_median_ranks, NIE_ranks)\n",
    "print('Spearman correlation between rank by median age and rank by average NIE:', r_s, p_s)\n",
    "r, p = stats.spearmanr(NDE_ranks, NIE_ranks)\n",
    "print('Spearman correlation between rank by NDE and rank by NIE:', r, p)\n",
    "print('Differences in ranking by NDE and NIE:', NDE_ranks-NIE_ranks)"
   ]
  },
  {
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   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 结论\n",
    "将NDE数据和NIE数据在各个国家之间对比得到的排名两组数据进行相关性分析\\\n",
    "使用Pearson系数作为线性相关性的指标\\\n",
    "发现NDE和NIE排名之间不存在明显的相关性\\\n",
    "说明国家的防疫措施和国家的病例年龄分布之间不存在明显线性关系"
   ]
  }
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